How we are doing
If you put $100 on every one of our 61 calls, you would have
$6,249
today. +$549 on $5,700 simulated.
Each square is one call we made. Green = we made money. Red = we lost. Gold = still open.
15 closed (5 wins, 10 losses) · 42still open · see every call →
Today’s lead · macro
Buy TIP at $111.21 before next week's inflation report: big money quietly loaded $4.7B of inflation insurance
Smart money has poured $4.7 billion into the iShares TIPS exchange-traded fund (a basket of US bonds that pay more when inflation is high) over the last three months while everyone else thought prices were calming down. Last month's inflation reading came in hot, the next one drops in about 11 days, and the cost of shipping things across oceans is more than double what it was a year ago.
Recent
- macro·1d ago
Buy international stocks (EFA) at $103.00: big money quietly moved $14.7B out of the US
Over the last three months, $14.7 billion flowed into exchange-traded funds that hold European, Japanese, and Australian stocks, the fourth-largest move into any theme on the board. With US stocks at record highs and crypto at extreme fear, the rotation out of US risk is the macro story of the week.
- politics·2d ago
Don't catch Coinbase at $189.03: regulators just let US money flow to offshore crypto exchanges
The US derivatives regulator (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC) issued three crypto rulings today. Robinhood jumped 24.21% and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) fell 5.44%, exactly as we called yesterday. Coinbase is down 2.34% to $189.03 and looks cheap, but the moat just got weaker. Stand aside.
- onchain·2d ago
Don't buy ether.fi at $0.40: every restaking protocol is bleeding money this week
Liquid restaking, the hottest crypto narrative of 2024, lost more than a quarter of its biggest pool's deposits in seven days while US regulators cleared a new path for institutional crypto exposure. Stand aside on ETHFI at $0.40 until the bleeding stops.
- stocks·2d ago
Wait for Norwegian Cruise to dip to $17.00: an insider bet $4.2M while planes are packed
A senior officer at Norwegian Cruise Line just spent $4.2 million of personal cash buying the stock at $16.43, and US airport traffic hit record levels over the Memorial Day weekend. The stock jumped 11% today to $18.34, so don't chase, wait for a pullback to around $17.00.
- politics·3d ago
Don't chase CME at $277.42: federal regulators are building a moat around prediction markets
The federal regulator that oversees futures filed two major prediction markets actions on the same day, the first insider trading case ever brought on event contracts and a second lawsuit to block a state from interfering. CME Group is the obvious incumbent winner, but at $277.42 the stock is breaking down on its chart and the cleaner setup is below $262.
- onchain·3d ago
Don't buy Ethereum at $2,011: fear is at extreme lows but leveraged traders are still betting up
Crypto fear gauge dropped to 22 today, the worst reading in a week, while traders on Hyperliquid are paying the maximum rate to bet Ethereum goes up. That mix usually means more pain before the bottom. Stand aside on Ether (ETH) at $2,011.
- politics·4d ago
Buy Robinhood at $76.23: federal regulators just cleared the path for its prediction markets business
Robinhood (HOOD) jumped 2.79% to $76.23 on a weak day for the broader market after federal regulators sued a state over a law restricting prediction markets. Nearly half of HOOD's daily trading volume is shorts betting against it, and the stock bounced exactly off its 50-day average price.
- onchain·4d ago
Buy Hyperliquid at $60.41: their network just passed Arbitrum while crypto fear is extreme
Hyperliquid's blockchain just overtook Arbitrum on locked-up capital, but the HYPE token is down 3.67% to $60.41 and the crypto fear gauge sits at 25 (Extreme Fear). That's the quiet kind of bottom worth buying.
- politics·5d ago
Don't buy DKNG at $23.81: federal regulators just signed a sports betting deal with the NHL
DraftKings dropped 7.64% today to $23.81 as federal regulators (CFTC) signed an integrity agreement with the National Hockey League, the latest sign that prediction markets like Kalshi may soon offer nationwide sports betting that bypasses state-licensed sportsbooks entirely.
- crypto·5d ago
Don't buy Zcash at $609.72: a forgotten privacy coin is up 12 times this year and longs are starting to crack
Zcash (ZEC), a 12-year-old privacy coin most traders had written off, is now the 13th biggest crypto in the world at $609.72 and a $10.2 billion market value. It just dropped 8.8% in a single day while the rest of crypto sits in fear. Stand aside.
- stocks·5d ago
Buy Black Rock Coffee at $7.25: a major holder just dropped $73M while shorts are crowded
A big shareholder of Black Rock Coffee Bar just put $73 million of fresh cash into the stock at $5.35 a share, more than doubling their stake while short sellers are still leaning hard on it. The stock trades at $7.25 today, only a dollar off its all-time low.
- politics·6d ago
Don't chase JETS at $27.13: prediction markets price US Iran peace deal at 37%
An exchange-traded fund (a basket of stocks you can buy as one ticker) called JETS that holds the major US airlines jumped 9.4% in three trading days while Polymarket only prices a US Iran peace deal at 37%. The airlines are pricing in better odds than the prediction market. Stand aside at $27.13.
- onchain·6d ago
New blockchain Plasma dumps 89 million tokens tomorrow while traders are already crowded long: don't buy XPL at $0.088
A brand new blockchain called Plasma is releasing 89 million of its XPL tokens to insiders tomorrow, a 3.7% dilution of everything in circulation, and the traders on the biggest perpetual-futures venue are already paying the maximum daily fee to bet the price goes up. Wait at least 48 hours after the unlock before touching XPL at $0.088.
- stocks·6d ago
Buy Asbury Auto at $187.72: a director just put $2.18M of his own cash in
A director at Asbury Automotive (ABG) bought $2.18 million of his own company's stock at $204.86 last Tuesday[^1]. The stock has since dropped to $187.72, meaning he's already underwater, and the whole car-dealer group is bouncing 1 to 6% this morning.
- politics·May 19
Senate killed a vote to re-regulate Buy-Now-Pay-Later: buy AFRM at $65.30, stop $62.50
Senate Democrats failed to overturn the CFPB pulling its Buy Now Pay Later rule. The pure-play BNPL stock Sezzle popped 7.16% on the news, Affirm has not moved yet. Buy AFRM at $65.30 with a stop at $62.50.
- onchain·May 19
LayerZero insiders unlock $14M of tokens in 2 days while crypto fear hits 25: stand aside on ZRO at $1.33
ZRO is sitting at $1.33 two days before insiders get a $14M cliff unlock, and crypto sentiment just collapsed from neutral to extreme fear in a week. Don't buy ZRO this week. Wait for the unlock dump to clear.
- politics·May 18
CFTC is winning the prediction-market state-by-state lawsuit war and CME just popped 8% to $305.12: wait on CME
The federal commodity regulator filed a fifth lawsuit this month telling states they cannot ban prediction markets. CME, the federally-regulated exchange that benefits most, gapped up 8% to $305.12. Do not chase it here. Wait for a pullback near $297.
- stocks·May 18
House just passed a military-construction spending bill and two big federal contractors had insider buys: buy KBR at $30.81, stop $29.50
The House passed a big military-construction and veterans spending bill on Thursday. The same week, insiders at two of the biggest companies that win those contracts (KBR and Jacobs) bought their own stock while shares sat at 52-week lows. KBR is the cleaner setup.
- macro·May 17
Inflation hedge fund TIP just hit a 6-month low while shipping costs doubled: buy TIP at $110.61, stop $108.75
The fund that pays you more when inflation rises just got sold down to a 6-month low, right as global shipping costs more than doubled from a year ago. Buy TIP at $110.61 with a stop at $108.75.