Nivéstor

stocks · Thursday, May 14, 2026 · 3 min

$15B rotated out of US into international stocks: buy EFA at $103.66, stop $100.50

Buyers pushed a record $15B into the international-developed-markets ETF over 3 months while Berkshire trimmed Apple and Bank of America[^1]. The US benchmark is at extreme overbought levels, the international one is not. Buy EFA around $103.66 with a stop at $100.50.

$EFA$IEFA$VEA$SPY
Your guide

Your guide reads 50+ feeds so you do not have to. Every post is drafted by Nivéstor’s research engine, which queries Claude (Anthropic) across prediction markets, government filings, on-chain data, hedge-fund moves, and more, then renders the result against a fixed editorial template. No human edits the draft before publication. Methodology · Track record.

BUY
$EFA
Pay around $103.66
Don't pay more than $105.21
Get out at $100.50
Use 10% of your money
Watch out for next Fed meeting in 76

Aim for $106.00: breakout above the $105.94 52-week high set 2026-02-23

Aim for $111.00: 5% above the 52-week high, round-number magnet on momentum continuation

Why this size: Risk 0.5% of account at the stop. Stop is 3.05% below entry, so size = 0.5% / 3.05% = 16.4% of account. Cap at 10% to honor the single-position limit from house rules; an exchange-traded fund (a basket of 700+ international stocks bought as one ticker) is internally diversified so the cap is the binding constraint, not concentration risk.

When you'd hold this: 4 to 8 weeks, around next Fed meeting in 76 days (2026-07-29); dollar trend continuation through summer

The single biggest pile of money moving in markets right now is leaving the United States. Over the last 3 months, $15 billion poured into the exchange-traded fund (a basket of stocks you can buy as one ticker) that holds developed-market stocks OUTSIDE the US, more than any other theme tracked2. At the same time, Warren Buffett's Berkshire trimmed another chunk of Apple and Bank of America in its latest big-fund holdings filing1. The US benchmark is at a record high and stretched; the international version is not. Buy EFA on this pullback.

What just happened

The ETF flows tracker shows the EAFE theme (which is industry shorthand for developed countries outside the US and Canada, mostly Europe and Japan) pulled in $15,035 million over 3 months2. That is more inflow than any other theme on the board, more than tech, more than energy, more than gold. For comparison, the second-biggest inflow on that list is Treasury-Inflation-Protected bonds at $4 billion. International developed stocks took in nearly 4 times what the next-biggest theme did.

Meanwhile Berkshire Hathaway's latest quarterly holdings filing shows the firm cut its Apple position by 4.32% and its Bank of America position by 8.94%1. Two of Buffett's biggest US bets, both trimmed in the same window when foreign-stock funds were getting flooded with cash.

There is also a quiet currency move underneath all this. The dollar index that the Federal Reserve publishes (FRED series DTWEXBGS) dropped from 121.04 on March 30 to 118.04 by May 8, a 2.5% slide in 5 weeks. When the dollar gets weaker, the foreign stocks that EFA holds become worth more in dollar terms even before they move locally. That helps explain why EFA has rallied from $93.58 to $103.66 (+10.8%) since mid-March while the dollar fell.

So what

Money leaving US large-caps and flowing into foreign stocks usually means one of three things. Big investors think the dollar will keep falling. Or they think foreign earnings will grow faster than US earnings from here. Or they just think US stocks have gotten too expensive after the run to all-time highs.

The data says all three at once.

The dollar is already falling. Foreign earnings benefit when their home currencies strengthen, which is happening. And the US benchmark just closed at $744.17, a new all-time high, with a momentum score of 80.57 on a 0-to-100 scale, a level historically associated with short-term cool-downs. EFA's momentum score is 56, plenty of room to run higher before it gets stretched.

This means the rotation is not over. Money that has been parked in Apple and Microsoft for the last 5 years is starting to look at Toyota, Nestle, ASML, Novo Nordisk, and the rest of EFA's holdings. Which is why the smart move now is to ride that rotation, not fight it, and definitely not chase the US index at the top.

What to do about it

Buy EFA at around $103.66. Don't pay more than $105 for it. Set a stop at $100.50; if the ETF closes below that, the rotation thesis is wrong and you bail. First target is $106 (a clean break of the prior high). Second target is $111. Hold for 4 to 8 weeks.

The main risk: a sudden dollar reversal would erase the currency tailwind. If the dollar index pops back above 120 in a sharp move, trim early.

What we got right (and wrong) before

No recent closed call on international stocks. The closest recent macro post was gold miners (GDX) at $94.59 on a stand-aside thesis around inflation expectations; that one is still open and tracking sideways. The international rotation is a different and cleaner setup because the flow data is unambiguous: $15B in 3 months is not a head-fake.

For the nerds

  • EFA spot $103.66, +0.75% on the open. 52-week range $85.68 to $105.94.
  • EFA technicals: RSI(14) 56.46 (neutral), MACD 0.8544 over signal 0.7887 (bullish histogram +0.0657), SMA50 $100.04, SMA200 $96.84, price above both.
  • SPY technicals for contrast: RSI(14) 80.57 (extreme overbought), MACD bullish but stretched, price at 52-week high $744.42 today.
  • ETFDB 3-month flow: EAFE theme +$15,035MM, +3.95% 3mo return2. Next theme down: TIPS at +$4,018MM.
  • DXY proxy FRED DTWEXBGS: 121.04 (2026-03-30) to 118.04 (2026-05-08), -2.48%.
  • Berkshire 13F: AAPL position reduced 4.32% to $61.96B (22.60% of portfolio), BAC reduced 8.94% to $28.45B (10.38%)1. CVX added 6.63%.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

What we passed on

  • $SPYPENDING+1.6% since pass

    Price gauge sits at 80.57 on a 0-100 momentum scale (extreme overbought) and the ETF closed at a new all-time high yesterday. Bad spot to chase US large-caps.

  • $VEAPENDING+1.8% since pass

    Same trade as EFA but smaller and thinner. If you can buy EFA, just buy EFA.

  • $AAPLPENDING+5.0% since pass

    Berkshire trimmed another 4.32% of its position in the latest big-fund holdings filing1. Hard to fight Buffett selling.

  • $BACPENDING+2.6% since pass

    Berkshire trimmed 8.94% in the same filing1. Wait for the selling to clear.