politics · Monday, June 15, 2026 · 3 min
Buy Interactive Brokers at $92.76 as Washington just cleared the runway for prediction markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued New Mexico on Wednesday to stop states from banning prediction markets, then opened the federal rulebook to expand them. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) runs its own regulated prediction-market platform and is up only 6.19% today while rival Robinhood (HOOD) already jumped 15.38%. IBKR is the cleaner buy at $92.76.
Your guide reads 50+ feeds so you do not have to. Every post is drafted by Nivéstor’s research engine, which queries Claude (Anthropic) across prediction markets, government filings, on-chain data, hedge-fund moves, and more, then renders the result against a fixed editorial template. No human edits the draft before publication. Methodology · Track record.
Aim for $100.00: round-number psychological level just above the prior 52-week high of $94.73
Aim for $108.00: extension target roughly 15% above the breakout from the $94.73 prior high, in line with similar breakout moves in 2024
Why this size: Risk 0.5% of account at the sell-if-it-falls level. Stop distance is 6.2% below entry, so raw size would be 0.5% / 6.2% = 8% of account. Cap at 5% because the stock is up 6% today and we want room to add if it pulls back to $90.
When you'd hold this: 4 to 8 weeks, around Fed rate-setting meeting on 2026-06-17 (2 days from today), CFTC event-contract rulemaking comment window runs through July
On Wednesday the federal regulator that oversees commodity markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), did two things at once. It sued the state of New Mexico for trying to ban prediction markets inside its borders1, and it opened the federal rulebook to formally expand what kinds of bets these markets can offer2. The companies that run prediction markets just got told by Washington that states cannot shut them down. The publicly traded stock that benefits most is Interactive Brokers (IBKR), and it is the cleaner buy here than Robinhood (HOOD).
What just happened
Prediction markets are websites where you can buy and sell contracts that pay out based on real-world events, like "will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in June" or "who wins the next election." Two of these apps, Kalshi and Polymarket, are currently ranked number 3 and number 6 in the entire US App Store Finance category, ahead of most banking apps. Retail traders are pouring in.
Several states (most recently New Mexico, before that Nevada and New Jersey) have been telling these companies they need a state gambling license or they have to stop serving customers in that state. On Wednesday the CFTC said no, these are federally regulated futures contracts, and sued New Mexico in federal court to make that clear1. Three days earlier the CFTC also opened a formal rulemaking on event contracts that signals it wants to expand, not restrict, this market2.
Interactive Brokers is a public stockbroker that already runs its own regulated prediction-market platform called ForecastEx. Robinhood routes its event contracts through a partnership with Kalshi. Both stocks moved on the news. Robinhood jumped 15.38% to $98.12 in one day. Interactive Brokers moved only 6.19% to $92.76.
So what
If the federal government just told states they cannot ban these markets, then every dollar of legal uncertainty that was keeping big retail brokers from putting prediction contracts in front of their customers just got smaller. Which means the brokers that already have a regulated prediction-market product can sell more of it without waiting. Which means more trading volume, more fee revenue, and a longer runway before any state-level rule can shut the music off. Which is why both Interactive Brokers and Robinhood went up today on the same announcement. Interactive Brokers moved less because it is a less crowded retail name, and that is exactly why it is the better buy: the move has not gone parabolic yet.
What to do about it
Buy Interactive Brokers (IBKR) at around $92.76. Sell it if it closes below $87. First target is $100, second target is $108. Do not chase Robinhood here; it already moved 15% in a single day and that kind of one-day jump usually pulls back before going higher. The main risk is that the Fed rate decision on Tuesday surprises the market and broker stocks sell off with everything else.
What we got right (and wrong) before
Last week we said buy CME Group at $262.18 because regulators handed it the US crypto perpetual futures market. Same regulator, same direction, related rulebook; that call is intact and CME is still in our basket. We also said do not chase Flutter (FanDuel parent) at $110.65 on the sports-betting filing because the news was already in the price, and that was the right read; it has gone nowhere since.
For the nerds
IBKR price $92.76, day +6.19%. Relative Strength Index (a momentum gauge) at 68.8, which is elevated but with cooling possible. The 50-day moving average is $81.98 and the 200-day is $71.72, so the stock is in a clean uptrend with the 50-day above the 200-day. The 52-week range is $49.30 to $94.73, meaning today's close is roughly $2 below the prior high. HOOD by contrast is at $98.12 below its 200-day moving average of $102.78, so it is rebounding from a downtrend instead of breaking out from an uptrend. HOOD RSI 69.64. CFTC release 9251-261 is the New Mexico lawsuit; release 9249-262 is the event-contract rulemaking. Polymarket implied odds for a Fed cut of 50 basis points or more at the June 16 to 17 meeting are 0.15%3, so any decision other than hold or small cut would shock the rates curve. Treasury 10-year yield 4.48%, Fed funds 3.62%, 10-year minus 2-year spread 0.39% (Federal Reserve Economic Data series DGS10, DFF, T10Y2Y, as of 2026-06-12).
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
What we passed on
- $HOODPENDING0.0% since pass
Robinhood already jumped 15.38% today on the same news; do not chase a one-day move that big, wait for it to settle.
- $CMEPENDING0.0% since pass
We bought CME at $262.18 last week on the related crypto-futures rule; that thesis is intact but the easy entry is gone.
- $FLUTPENDING0.0% since pass
We said do not chase Flutter on the sports-betting filing last week; same logic, this is a different rulebook.