macro · Saturday, June 13, 2026 · 4 min
Buy TLT at $85.77 before the Fed meeting in 4 days while jobless claims quietly climb
Long-dated US Treasury bonds (TLT, the exchange-traded fund (a basket of bonds you can buy as one ticker) that holds 20-year US government bonds) jumped 0.83% to $85.77 today as the 10-year US government bond interest rate fell from 4.55% to 4.45% in one session. Weekly jobless claims have climbed from 199,000 in early May to 229,000 last week, and the Fed's rate-setting meeting is on June 17, 4 days from today.
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Aim for $88.50: Late-May resistance band before the early-June yield spike
Aim for $91.00: Within 1.3% of the 52-week high of $92.19
Why this size: Risk 0.5% of account at the sell-if-it-drops level. Stop is 2.65% below entry ($85.77 to $83.50), so raw position = 0.5% / 2.65% = 18.9% of account. Cap at 8% because this is a single binary macro event (the Fed meeting) and the size policy on event-driven macro positions is 8% max.
When you'd hold this: 2 to 6 weeks, around Fed rate-setting meeting on 2026-06-17, 4 days from today
Two things happened in the last 24 hours that most retail traders missed. The interest rate on the 10-year US government bond fell from 4.55% to 4.45% in a single session. And the number of Americans filing for unemployment for the first time has climbed for 4 straight weeks, from 199,000 in early May to 229,000 last week. The Fed's rate-setting meeting is on June 17, 4 days from today, and the bond market is starting to sniff something the headlines have not caught up to yet. The trade is to buy TLT, the exchange-traded fund (a basket of bonds you can buy as one ticker) that holds long-dated US government bonds, at $85.77 before the meeting.
What just happened
The US Treasury publishes the interest rate on its 10-year bond every day. That rate sets the price for mortgages, car loans, and basically every long-term loan in America. From June 8 to June 11, it moved from 4.56% down to 4.45%. That is a meaningful one-day drop. When that rate falls, the price of long-dated government bonds rises. TLT, the most popular fund that holds those bonds, jumped 0.83% to $85.77 today.
At the same time, the Labor Department's weekly count of Americans filing for unemployment for the first time has climbed every week for a month. The numbers, in order: 199,000, 210,000, 212,000, 225,000, 229,0001. That is a 15% rise in the count of people getting laid off, week over week, with no single big event causing it. It is the slow drip that economists watch for when they are trying to spot a slowing economy before the headlines see it.
The Fed meets next Wednesday and updates its forecast. The futures market currently gives a 97.4% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged2 at this meeting. So nobody is positioned for a surprise.
So what
Here is the chain. The Fed has two jobs: keep prices stable and keep employment high. When the jobs picture starts looking softer, the Fed has to start thinking about cutting rates, even if inflation is not yet at its target. Layoff filings climbing for 4 straight weeks is the kind of slow shift that gets the Fed's attention. Which is why the bond market has already started buying bonds, which pushes their interest rates down. Which is what we saw this week.
Warren Buffett is doing the same thing in his own way. Berkshire Hathaway's most recent big-fund holdings filing (the quarterly filing of what big funds own) shows he cut his Chevron position by 35%3 and trimmed Bank of America. Both of those companies do badly in a slowing economy. He is moving out of cyclical exposure ahead of the slowdown. The Berkshire move plus the bond move plus the jobless-claims trend are three separate measurements pointing at the same thing.
If the Fed on Wednesday acknowledges the soft labor data, even with a single word like "moderating" replacing "strong", TLT pops because rate-cut expectations move forward. If the Fed stays hawkish, TLT drifts but the jobless-claims trend will pull it up over the following weeks anyway. Either way the asymmetry favors being long.
What to do about it
Buy TLT at around $85.77 today or tomorrow. Don't pay more than $86.50 for it. If it drops to $83.50 or below at the close, sell it; the thesis is wrong. Target is $88.50 on a dovish Fed (a Fed that hints at cutting rates), or $91 if the rate-cut path moves forward by a full meeting.
The risk: Powell uses the press conference to remind everyone that inflation is still above 2% and the labor market is still healthy by historical standards. If that happens, TLT can drift back toward its 52-week low of $82.77 before recovering. That is why the sell-if-it-drops level is at $83.50, just above that floor.
What we got right (and wrong) before
No recent closed call in the long-duration Treasury area; this is our first call on the TLT trade for the June Fed meeting cycle. Two days ago we said buy the Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETHA) at $12.61 while panic peaks; that one is still open and tied to a different driver (Fear and Greed at 13). On the macro side we have been quiet because there has been nothing to do, the curve only un-inverted in mid-May. The set-up is now actionable.
For the nerds
10-year yield (FRED DGS10) 4.45% (2026-06-11), down 10 bps from 4.55% one session prior. 2-year (FRED DGS2) 4.05%. 10Y-2Y spread (FRED T10Y2Y) +0.39, un-inverted since mid-May. Fed funds (FRED DFF) 3.62%. CME FedWatch on the June 17 meeting: 97.4% no change, 2.6% ease2. ICSA: 199k, 210k, 212k, 225k, 229k over the past 5 weekly prints (FRED ICSA, weeks ending 2026-05-02 through 2026-06-06). Unemployment rate (FRED UNRATE) 4.3% in May, was 4.4% in February. TLT 52-week range $82.77 to $92.19, currently $85.77, RSI ~52 (neutral, no edge from technicals alone). VIX (FRED VIXCLS) 19.44 on June 11. Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 13 (extreme fear) is the cross-asset risk-off confirmation. ETF flows over the last 3 months: Treasury inflation-protected basket +$5.6 billion, developed-international basket +$8.4 billion, both classic defensive rotations. Berkshire 13F: CVX cut 35.17%, BAC cut 0.71%3. Calendar: Retail Sales (May) on June 17 morning, Fed decision 14:00 ET, Powell presser 14:30 ET, next jobless claims print Thursday June 18.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
What we passed on
- $GLDPENDING0.0% since pass
Gold-tracking fund dropped 2.45% to $386.54 today, the opposite reaction you would want if the bond market was signaling a real growth scare. Wait for a clean signal.
- $IEFPENDING0.0% since pass
The 7-to-10-year Treasury fund moves only about a third as much as TLT per change in interest rates. Same trade idea but with less reward if the thesis works.
- $UUPPENDING0.0% since pass
Dollar-index fund at $27.95 already near a 52-week high of $28.45; if the Fed turns soft, the dollar weakens, not strengthens.